Ghana’s booming gold exports are providing a critical lifeline for the economy, but a disruption to the routes through which the precious metal reaches international markets has exposed a less visible vulnerability that could complicate the country’s economic recovery.
The World Bank, in its latest Ghana Economic Update, says the Middle East conflict disrupted Ghana’s gold-refining routes through the United Arab Emirates, forcing shipments to be rerouted to Shanghai and India at higher cost and with additional delays.
The development highlights the growing importance of the logistics underpinning Ghana’s gold trade at a time when the precious metal has become a major source of foreign exchange and an important support for the country’s external position.
The Bank said Ghana’s position as a major gold exporter, together with its status as an oil producer and limited direct trade exposure to countries directly affected by the conflict, has helped cushion the economy from the shock. However, it identified the disruption to gold-refining routes as one of the channels through which the conflict has affected Ghana.
“Ghana’s gold refining routes through the United Arab Emirates were disrupted,” the World Bank said, explaining that this required costly rerouting to Shanghai and India and resulted in logistical delays to a key export value chain.
That disruption comes as Ghana’s gold exports reach levels that have become increasingly significant to the country’s external accounts. The World Bank said Ghana’s current account surplus surged to 7.9 per cent of GDP in 2025, from 1.8 per cent in 2024, reflecting favourable terms of trade and strong export performance.
The Bank attributed the turnaround to gold exports at record global prices, stronger cocoa exports and resilient remittance inflows. The trend continued into 2026. Between January and June 2026, Ghana recorded a trade surplus of US$8.8 billion, up 53 per cent from US$5.7 billion during the same period of 2025.
Gold exports accounted for US$12.5 billion, representing a 49 per cent increase year-on-year, while imports reached US$9.5 billion. The World Bank said the increase in imports was driven by higher oil and non-oil import bills, which rose by 39 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.
The Bank said the continued high global gold prices provided a “partial but important offset” to the higher import bill, describing gold as a “critical buffer against external financing pressures.” The importance of the gold export chain is further reflected in the country’s international reserves.
Gross international reserves rose sharply to US$13.8 billion at the end of 2025, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover. The World Bank said the increase represented nearly a doubling from the previous year. By June 2026, reserves stood at US$12.9 billion, equivalent to five months of import cover, with the report linking the continued strength of reserves to strong gold export performance.
The World Bank also reported that the government’s Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Program, underpinned by the Gold-for-Reserves programme, is targeting 15 months of import cover by 2028.
The report said strong gold exports, together with higher oil prices associated with the Middle East conflict, were expected to support Ghana’s trade balance despite the higher fuel import bill. But while gold is strengthening Ghana’s external position, the World Bank cautioned that the sustainability of those gains remains linked to commodity prices and the country’s ability to diversify its exports.
According to the report, Ghana’s external position strengthened markedly in 2025, driven by record gold export receipts and a near-doubling of international reserves. The momentum continued into 2026 as strong gold exports offset a higher import bill.
However, the Bank said the sustainability of the external balances remained contingent on commodity-price conditions and progress in diversifying exports towards non-extractive sectors.
The disruption to the UAE refining route occurred within a wider increase in international transport costs caused by the Middle East conflict.
The World Bank said Ghana’s trade exposure to the conflict operates through two main channels. The first involves the rise in global freight rates and conflict-related surcharges, which have increased the cost of imports. The second concerns the disruption to Ghana’s gold-refining routes through the UAE.
The Bank said the latter required gold to be rerouted to Shanghai and India, with the change increasing costs and adding logistical delays to the export value chain. The report also identified a separate and more immediate impact of the conflict through higher fertilizer prices. It said urea prices had nearly doubled, increasing from US$310 per metric tonne before the conflict to US$585 by early March 2026.
According to the World Bank, the increase directly threatened Ghana’s planting season and near-term food security. It also warned that possible export restrictions from important food suppliers, including rice and poultry from India and tomatoes from Burkina Faso, could create further pressure on domestic demand.
The World Bank said these developments were occurring against a difficult global backdrop. “The global economy is facing another shock,” the report said, as the Middle East conflict generated higher energy prices and disruptions to international trade and supply chains.
For Ghana, the report identifies both positive and negative effects from the changing external environment. On the positive side, strong gold receipts remain an important source of support for the economy. The Bank said positive momentum from gold receipts, services growth and infrastructure delivery could lift Ghana’s medium-term growth.
It also said that a sustained period of elevated gold prices above the conservative baseline assumption would strengthen the country’s reserves, current account and fiscal revenues. The medium-term outlook, however, remains exposed to developments in commodity markets.
The World Bank projects real GDP growth to moderate to 4.8 per cent in 2026, as the gains from macroeconomic adjustment taper off, oil and gas production softens and headwinds from the Middle East conflict persist.
It expects growth to converge towards an estimated potential of around five per cent over the medium term, subject to reforms in the energy and cocoa sectors, stronger non-extractive activity and the coming onstream of the PECAN oil field.
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