The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) has questioned the sustainability of the government’s fiscal performance ahead of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, arguing that the reported improvement in key macroeconomic indicators was achieved largely through spending cuts rather than structural economic reforms.
The concerns were contained in a statement published on the official X (formerly Twitter) account of the New Patriotic Party ahead of the Finance Minister’s presentation of the Mid-Year Budget Review.
According to the statement, the party’s Policy Committee on Finance and Economy had reviewed the latest official economic data and was obliged, as a responsible opposition party, to share its assessment with the public and draw the government’s attention to what it described as worrying signals in the economy.
The NPP said the government is expected to announce that Ghana has moved from economic stabilisation to growth, but maintained that a closer examination of official figures presents a different picture.
The party argued that although the government is expected to report a 2025 primary surplus of 2.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exceeding the revised target of 1.5 per cent, the surplus was achieved mainly by reducing expenditure rather than improving revenue collection.
According to the statement, government revenue missed its revised target by 4.7 per cent, while expenditure was compressed by 13.8 per cent.
The NPP contended that the fiscal surplus reflected postponed spending rather than genuine structural reforms, describing it as “fiscal space created by under-execution.”
Citing figures from the Bank of Ghana, the party said first-quarter expenditure in 2026 amounted to GH¢62.1 billion against a target of GH¢78.8 billion, representing a 21.2 per cent shortfall.
It claimed capital expenditure was 41.9 per cent below target, foreign-financed projects recorded only GH¢0.6 billion in spending out of a planned GH¢5.3 billion, while expenditure on goods and services and statutory grants to the health, education and district assemblies also fell below budgeted levels.
According to the statement, infrastructure projects such as roads, schools and hospitals suffered the deepest cuts, while the public sector wage bill remained largely protected.
Arrears and revenue
The NPP also questioned the government’s management of outstanding arrears.
Referring to previous statements by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, the party noted that inherited arrears were initially put at GH¢67.5 billion, with a joint audit validating GH¢45.4 billion.
The statement argued that although GH¢13 billion was allocated for arrears clearance in the 2025 Budget, the Minister has indicated that only GH¢11.5 billion has so far been paid.
The party called on the government to disclose the current arrears stock, identify the sectors most affected and explain whether arrears payments are being delayed because of fiscal constraints.
On revenue mobilisation, the NPP said first-quarter revenue fell 4.5 per cent below programme targets.
It also claimed that oil revenue declined sharply from approximately GH¢19.8 billion in 2024 to GH¢8.7 billion in 2025, while first-quarter petroleum receipts this year were 37.6 per cent below target.
The party questioned how the government intends to achieve its annual revenue target without introducing additional taxes on businesses and households.
IMF and growth
The NPP further argued that Ghana’s expected transition from the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) to a Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) demonstrates that the country still requires external policy supervision despite no longer receiving IMF financing.
According to the statement, the IMF continues to identify state-owned enterprises, contingent liabilities, quasi-fiscal operations and dependence on high gold prices as significant fiscal risks.
The party also challenged the government’s economic growth narrative, arguing that the reported 6.4 per cent first-quarter growth was driven largely by increased gold production and favourable international gold prices rather than broad-based economic expansion.
It urged the Finance Minister to publish sensitivity analyses showing how growth, exports and fiscal performance would be affected if gold prices returned to historical averages.
Inflation, debt and Bank of Ghana
The statement also expressed concern over inflation and exchange rate developments, noting that headline inflation had risen for three consecutive months to 5.3 per cent in June, while the cedi had depreciated by between 8.4 per cent and 10.3 per cent this year, depending on the source.
The NPP maintained that part of Ghana’s improvement in the debt-to-GDP ratio resulted from debt restructuring undertaken by the previous administration and exchange-rate valuation effects, warning that currency depreciation could reverse those gains.
It also called on the Finance Minister to publish a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis, citing differences between debt figures reported by the Bank of Ghana and projections by the IMF.
The party further expressed concern over the financial position of the Bank of Ghana, arguing that losses recorded by the central bank represent a future fiscal burden.
It also welcomed the Bank of Ghana’s decision to discontinue pre-financing of GoldBod’s gold purchases from July 1, describing the move as vindication of concerns previously raised by the Minority over quasi-fiscal operations.
The NPP concluded by urging the government to use the Mid-Year Budget Review to publish reconciled debt figures, updated arrears data and a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis.
It maintained that expenditure cuts and delayed project execution should not be presented as evidence of lasting economic reform and called on the government to demonstrate that the country’s fiscal gains are sustainable.
For more news, join The Chronicle Newspaper channel on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbBSs55E50UqNPvSOm2z
