A new survey by Yiaga Africa has found that 84 per cent of Nigerians are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, although fears of violence, distrust in electoral institutions and vote buying could undermine turnout.
The third round of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0), released on Wednesday, showed that while voter intention has increased from 73 per cent in March 2026 to 84 per cent in September, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fallen.
According to the survey, only 34 per cent of respondents are confident that INEC will conduct credible elections, compared with 45 per cent recorded in each of the two previous rounds of the survey.
The report, titled ‘Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027’, is based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The interviews were conducted in September 2026 through telephone calls and, for the first time, face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
The survey identified insecurity as the biggest potential barrier to voter turnout, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could prevent them from voting.
The figure rises to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent of respondents said improved security would make them more likely to vote.
Yiaga Africa said the findings show that Nigerians remain interested in participating in elections, but that willingness may not translate into actual turnout without improvements in security and confidence in the electoral process.
Confidence in INEC was particularly low in the South-East and South-South, where 62 per cent and 57 per cent of respondents respectively said they were not confident in the commission.
Despite the decline in institutional trust, 49 per cent of respondents said they trust the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the Independent National Electoral Commission Election Results Viewing Portal (IReV) for accreditation and results transmission.
Awareness of electoral reforms has also increased, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in the latest survey.
Credit: channelstv.com
