The Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) is inching closer to meeting its revised annual revenue target for 2025, despite facing headwinds in domestic tax mobilisation and the volatile performance of the cedi.
As of June 2025, the Authority had mobilised GH¢89.45 billion out of its revised GH¢229.1 billion annual target, according to figures published in its mid-year report.
This represents 39.1% of the target and a 6.4% increase over collections from the same period last year.
While the original revenue target, announced by the Finance Minister, was pegged at GH¢227.9 billion, it was slightly revised upward during the mid-year budget review to GH¢229.1 billion signaling government’s push to stabilise the fiscal framework amidst domestic and global economic pressures.
Direct Taxes Drive Recovery
Direct taxes continued to be a strong anchor for revenue mobilisation, with collections totalling GH¢42.1 billion in the first half of 2025. This amount surpassed initial estimates by GH¢6.5 billion.
Corporate income tax performed especially well, rising to GH¢20.19 billion, which is a 21.7% surge above the budgeted figure as businesses continued to rebound from pandemic-era slowdowns.
PAYE contributions stood at GH¢12.95 billion, marginally ahead of the GH¢12.87 billion target, indicating steady compliance among salaried workers.
Self-employed taxes also saw an 18.7% year-on-year increase, reaching GH¢788.95 million. A particularly noteworthy increase was recorded under “other taxes,” which spiked by 1,198.6% due to intensified enforcement and broader compliance coverage.
Mineral royalties and the financial sector recovery levy also exceeded expectations, posting gains of 25.8% and 25.6% respectively, reflecting improved sectoral reporting and remittances.
However, not all direct tax categories met expectations. Collections under the Ghana Stabilisation Levy (GSL) and National Fiscal Stabilization Levy (NFSL) fell sharply by 30.4%, highlighting persistent challenges in certain regulated industries.
Indirect and Customs Revenues Show Mixed Performance
Indirect taxes, comprising VAT, excise duties, and the National Health Insurance Levy (NHIL), totalled GH¢19.4 billion. While excise and NHIL outperformed projections, domestic VAT underwhelmed falling 14.6% short of target due in part to subdued local consumption.
Customs duties remained a bright spot, contributing GH¢24.59 billion, a 1.8% uptick over budgeted levels.
The value of imports rose by 5% at the end of June and is expected to climb to 8% by the end of the fourth quarter. These increases, coupled with currency appreciation, are expected to further bolster import-related revenues.
According to the report, exchange rate volatility has had a considerable impact on customs revenue. The cedi, which stood at GH¢10.30 per dollar in June, is projected to depreciate to GH¢12.80 by December. While this enhances cedi-denominated tax collections from imports, it also poses risks to inflation and consumer purchasing power.
Looking Ahead to 2025 and Beyond
The GRA is forecasting an ambitious GH¢220 billion in total tax revenues by year-end 2025 — a 10.6% increase over the GH¢198.8 billion collected in 2024. Growth is anticipated across all major tax segments: PAYE: +29.3%, Corporate Tax: +20.2%, Mineral Royalties: +29%.
The tax-to-non-oil GDP ratio is projected to inch up to 14.1%, suggesting improved efficiency in domestic resource mobilisation despite macroeconomic challenges.
However, the report also flagged concerns around underperformance in certain tax categories, such as petroleum excise duties and COVID-19-related levies. Analysts warn that while the overall target is achievable, sustained performance will depend heavily on enforcement, compliance, and adaptive fiscal strategies.
With less than five months to go, the GRA appears on track but not yet assured of meeting its full-year revenue target. A stronger push in the second half, including improved tax administration, digital tools, and cross-sectoral coordination will be critical to closing the remaining GH¢139.65 billion revenue gap.
As Ghana aims to balance economic recovery with fiscal discipline, the 2025 tax mobilisation trajectory offers both optimism and a reminder of the complexities facing tax authorities in a turbulent global economy.
