Host : Now let’s get to the NDC side of things. The NDC hasn’t opened nominations, the party is just settling into power. But a number of people have their names being thrown about.
And the context really is that the NDC will not repeat John Mahama in the next election. By the end of this term, he would have done this two times. And so that opens the floodgates for persons who want to run or who want to lead a party to start work.
A number of persons came up. Haruna Idrisu, Asiedu Nketia , Ato Forson , Julius Debra, Okudzeto Ablakwa, Eric Opoku, Agric minister, Prof. Joshua Alabi, Armah Kofi Buah , Kwame Awuah Darko, Ekow Spio Garbrah, and Oko Vanderpuije.
But in all of these, it does appear that majority of the people for now appear to be gravitating towards Haruna Idrissu and Asiedu Nketia and Ato Forson.
Haruna Idrissu hasn’t said much lately on whether he’s running or not. Of course, nobody has said. But we’ve seen some movements around for Asiedu Nketia and Julius Debra, especially having walks, having thank you talks, etc.
These are indicative events of persons who want to run. We’ve not seen anything around Haruna Idrissu. Why then are people thinking that he is the most preferred in the race?
Mussa Dankwah : No, that is the view from the street. Who do you prefer? He may decide not to run.
But people are saying that they prefer him to lead. At the moment, around 30% of the vote. So the fact that they prefer that you contest and lead doesn’t mean that you would contest.
So these are a list of people we believe are capable of running, contesting in NDC. Some of them, through backdoor channels, we were informed that they have some interest. And some of them, they want to see whether it is worth even starting any activity at all.
So for some of them, this is very insightful. And that what they may be thinking that they are may not be what is on the ground. So it kind of helps people to make decisions quickly, not to waste their time going around doing anything.
So it provides some sanity into your future aspirants that you may have.
Host: I see. But how do these names come up? Is it like you tell them who do you think will win?
Mussa Dankwah : No, no, no. Who would you prefer to lead NDC?
Host: And the names come up on their own?
Mussa Dankwah : No, we have names that we have given to them. And we also have someone else.
Host : Okay
Mussa Dankwah : If the names that we have given to you, you don’t see your choice in it, you see someone else. And someone else, who do you have in mind? Then we have to give a chance to free will, tell us who you want.
Host: And it’s interesting. I mean, Haruna leads this, but the Vice President is not in the list, because perhaps it’s her name.
Mussa Dankwah : It is our decision. Look, she was in the first survey we did in April. Then after that, she was taken ill. And when she came back, she tried to come back to the government.
And as pollsters , sometimes you make some judgement calls. We also looked at how old she would be in 2028. And what the dynamics today are, in terms of what we are being told.
Remember, 64% of the 78% are saying they want young people. And that tends to skew against that age bracket. So, on our own, we felt we should take her out, and to see how the race changes with her not being in the race.
Mussa Dankwah : It’s also something that we use as insight, to see how her vote disperse. And then also, look. There are certain names we know will not contest.
But they are there for strategic reasons. From certain blocks. Of the voter block, we have a black one there. We have the Ga block and we have the modern block. We want to know their alliances. If this person is not in the race, where does the block move to? For us, it is what makes us clever is projecting, who could win in the future. So this data may seem to be useless, but for us, it is a goldmine.
Host : Haruna Idrissu was it last week or so, met the Vice President. The Vice President met him. And in their conversation, he said he was praying for her, hoping that she would rise to the topmost position as President. Given that he is leading the opposition, he is wishing somebody would take up that. That is interesting, isn’t?
Mussa Dankwah : Oh yes, it is interesting. Maybe if we introduce the Vice President back in, we will see maybe the race may change.
But look, I think this country is looking ahead. Now, if you go into the data about who would you prefer to lead the country, the young or old leaders, interesting thing is that, look, the demography of the people, let me tell you.
Among those who said they want young to lead, every demography by age, by popularity, say young people, people between 18 and 24, 73% of them want young leaders. 25-34, 68% young leaders. 35-44, 60% young leaders. 45-54, 57% young leaders. 55-64, 62% young leaders. Even 65 people want young leaders to lead the country.
It is a consensus across every demography of age in this country. They probably have seen what the old people have performed. They want to try their own age mates
Host: I see. So, we have Ato Forson in there. We have Julius Debra there. We have Okudzeto Ablakwa , etc. Do you know whether… Of course, Mahama hasn’t said he supporting anybody. He is just focusing on his work for now. But does it matter who he supports?
Look, it could have consequences. Both plus and negatives. And I think we should… We shouldn’t’ think that we can hoodwink any group of people, voters of this country, to go a certain direction.
Host : If he is very popular in the party, and he gives indication that this is a person he is comfortable with…
Mussa Dankwah : It will have impact. You see, the impact could be negative and positive.
There are those who will be happy that he is given an endorsement to somebody. And there are those who fear the party will be torn apart if he does that. Remember in Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta went against Ruto. He went to endorse a candidate. He went, but the party didn’t go with him. Let that be a lesson.
Host : I see. Then, other names like Oko Vanderpuije, Spio-Garbrah- people think he is a spent force, he has been
around for a long time, has lost his pack, etc. So, it is interesting that he finds himself here. Oko Vanderpuije, not much activity around him.
Also quite interesting that he finds himself in the numbers, in the names here.
Mussa Dankwah : Look, what we intend to do is that going forward, we don’t want to have a long list of aspirations of people who, in the end, will not feature. So there will be a rule of, we will have to apply, that if you don’t make it at least 5% of the national support, you will be among someone else. So that we have a very sensible list. So, this list that we have, we can say that the top five : Ablakwa, Chief of Staff, Julius Debra, Ato Forson, Asiedu Nketia and Haruna. This may be the list that we will finally use in the future, but there will be room for someone else.
Mussa Dankwah : And if that someone else keeps popping up and doing a good number, then we will add him to the list.
Host : Let’s talk about Asiedu Nketia. He is chairman of the party.
One of the most popular, if not, apart from the president, the most well-known or popular person in the NDC. He has power. He wields quite some power. National chairman, been general secretary for many, many years. He is overseeing the election of all these delegates, etc. And he will, as chairman, oversee the election of these delegates, etc.
People think he has a stronghold on the delegates. And it is very likely that will go in his favour, or that will be to his advantage.
Mussa Dankwah : So far, we haven’t seen any poll yet. You see, perception may not be reality. We have not released any public poll on the delegates. So, let’s wait and see.
But I believe that, you see, there is going to be demographic changes in NDC delegates. At the moment, NDC delegates, they are a lot younger than the NPP delegates. And they will go into election to elect their party executives.
And it is more likely it will get younger, because of what we have seen on the ground.
Now, if these delegates get younger, it will really make it hard for the older guys. So, the demographic changes, there is nothing you can do about it. It will happen, naturally. When that happens, it is just the moment of the time that determines who leads NDC.
Host: Daniel is texting to ask why Goosie Tanoh is not featuring in the list.
Mussa Dankwah : I don’t want to say it, but we had him there, and we got him out.
Host: Why did we get him out? 24-hour economy, major plank of the government.
Mussa : We were contacted.
Host: That you should take him out.
Mussa Dankwah : Yes.
Host: Because he is not interested?
Mussa Dankwah : What as the reason was, we took him out. We gave people a chance to add the list, or take us from the list. And he was taken out.
Host: I see. And the NDC generally appears, as we speak, to be quite more popular in swing regions, in the general party to party.
The head-to-head race or polling. What, in your view, accounts for that? Is it because the party is new, and the party is still enjoying the goodwill?
Now, let’s look at Haruna again and the JM factor. Haruna is from the northern region. JM is also from the northern block.
There is this talk on the streets that maybe a lot of Ghanaians will not want people from the same region to lead them twice. Did that find expression in your work?
Mussa Dankwah : Look, those may be misconceptions among voters. If that was really what was on peoples’ mind, he wouldn’t be leading the pack in terms of what you saw.
But again, I can say that if the best consolidates, you can see the accounts coming together and that will give them a bump.
But look, we are in the Gen Z era. Gen Zs who are less tribalistic and less religious.
Even though there is a sentiment of religion in our politics. It is mostly among older voters. Now, the problem I can see is that, look, it’s typically for NDC. Unlike NPP, NPP base is about 65% account. So they can choose account any day, any time. There is no problem.
But with the NDC, it’s a smaller group of 20% there, 30 here, 19 there. So you need the collection of all the blocks to come together to help you. If you are in that situation, you tend to compromise a lot.
And look, we have given you guys a turn. If you are done, the other groups, three blocks will say, now it is our turn. So I think for the delegates, it is much more of a delegate issue than a national issue.
So the delegates may think that, okay, northerners have had their turn,
Let’s try other blocks.
Host : I see
Mussa Dankwah : We do what our clients want. We have done this since 2019. We started the polling after Nana Addo has won the election, just about a year after he has won the election, we started it.
There are people, there are in fact our clients, global clients, who are looking into 2028 and beyond, right? They want to have a fit of what the country is thinking. I don’t think any person in government or in the NDC should be disheartened because of the polls. You have a job to do.
Focus on the job. The NDC are talking. I’m just telling you what they are saying.
It doesn’t mean that you leave your job and jump and start campaigning. That is not what this is supposed to be. It is supposed to inform and also help people to make decisions.
Look, as we speak to you, we have been approached by some political party investors .
Host: to skew the votes ?
Mussa Dankwah : No no no to see the outlook as to who they can support in the future, right? They want to know now.
They are not saying it is too early.
Host : Mussa you are making money
Mussa Dankwah: We are not making any money. We are just running data. We are running data.
Look, there are companies, people like Fetch Solutions, other big, big research companies, they are not waiting for NDC to say that we are ready. No, they won’t wait for NDC. They want to know what is happening in the country.
Mussa Dankwah : NDC can decide to take their eye off the polls. That is fine. They can do that and they should do that.
Look, it is much easier for Mahama to call his people to order than to call me to order, for he doesn’t control me.
Host: But for example, if you have an Asiedu Nketia , who we hear is running, or will run ,going on thank you. If there are others in government who also have their eyes on it, they may obviously be distracted because this man is a free man. He is doing his party work and dealing with the people who eventually will vote.
Mussa Dankwah : But you see, I think next week we will put together some data from polls we have done among NDC delegates about what they think about what they think about early jostling for positions.
Did they assess whether what they were doing was winning them votes or costing them votes? You don’t join something because you think the person is leading or the person would come. You must also be guided by your own data.
Some of the things that the early movers were doing were really annoying voters and even delegates. If it is annoying delegate and annoying voters, it’s not going to inure to your advantage.
For more news, join The Chronicle Newspaper channel on WhatsApp:https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbBSs55E50UqNPvSOm2z
