The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, has said the economy is performing stronger than many experts had anticipated, citing recent economic data that points to declining inflation, improving external reserves and renewed momentum in economic activity.
Delivering the opening remarks at the 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra yesterday, Dr. Asiama indicated that the latest economic indicators present a clearer picture of the country’s progress since the committee last met in January.
“In several important respects, the performance of the economy has been stronger than many had anticipated,” he said.
The Governor, however, stressed that the meeting was not merely to acknowledge positive developments, but to carefully assess emerging risks and determine the appropriate policy response.
“But this is not a meeting to ratify good news. It is a meeting to make a judgment on conditions that have become simultaneously more encouraging and more uncertain,” he stated.
According to Dr. Asiama, headline inflation declined to 3.3 percent in February, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly decline and bringing the rate below the Bank’s medium-term target band.
“These are numbers that, not long ago, would have been considered aspirational”, he noted, adding that the steady disinflation trend reflects the effectiveness of recent macroeconomic policies.
The Governor also disclosed that Ghana’s external buffers have strengthened further in recent months.
He revealed that gross international reserves now stand at about US$14.5 billion, representing 5.8 months of import cover, compared with approximately US$13.8 billion at the time of the committee’s January meeting.
Dr. Asiama explained that the improvement in reserves enhances the country’s ability to withstand external shocks and supports broader macroeconomic stability.
Beyond the improving inflation outlook and external position, the Governor noted that the real sector of the economy is also showing encouraging signs of recovery and expansion.
“The Composite Index of Economic Activity grew by 8.4 percent year-on-year at the start of 2026, supported by stronger bank credit, industrial output, trade activity, and household consumption. Consumer and business confidence rose in February 2026, supported by easing inflation,” he said.
“Taken together, these indicators point to an economy stabilising more rapidly than many had expected,” he added.
Despite the positive domestic outlook, the Governor warned that developments in the global environment could pose challenges to Ghana’s economic progress.
He pointed to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which he said has disrupted key energy and shipping corridors, increased volatility in global oil markets and introduced new uncertainty into the global inflation outlook.
“The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has disrupted key energy and shipping corridors, increased volatility in global oil markets, and introduced new uncertainty into the trajectory of global inflation,” he said.
According to him, the implications for Ghana are significant, particularly through the channel of higher energy prices.
“For Ghana, the spill over channel is clear. Sustained oil price increases raise the risk of imported inflation, which could necessitate policy tightening with implications for financial conditions,” the Governor warned.
He acknowledged that geopolitical uncertainty could also support higher gold prices, which may benefit Ghana’s trade balance, but stressed that the overall balance of risks remains inflationary.
Dr. Asiama also drew the committee’s attention to the recently announced Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP), which aims to increase the country’s international reserves to 15 months of import cover by 2028, from the current level of about 5.8 months.
The Governor further observed that Ghana’s banking sector remains sound, profitable and well-capitalised, with asset quality improving significantly over the past year.
He said the strength of the banking sector is crucial not only for financial stability but also for the effectiveness of monetary policy, particularly in ensuring that changes in the policy rate translate into improved credit conditions for households and businesses.
Dr Asiama emphasised that the committee’s task at the current meeting would require careful judgment.
“The question before this Committee is not whether conditions have improved. They have, significantly and across the board.
“However, how do we respond to that improvement when the conditions that enabled it are under pressure?” he asked.
He concluded by noting that central banking is not only about managing crises, but also about sustaining progress.
“Central banking is not only about managing crises. It is equally about managing success, ensuring that progress achieved through disciplined policy is sustained,” he stated.
